Penalized maximum likelihood and semiparametric second-order efficiency

We consider the problem of estimation of a shift parameter of an unknown symmetric function in Gaussian white noise. We introduce a notion of semiparametric second-order efficiency and propose estimators that are semiparametrically efficient and second-order efficient in our model. These estimators are of a penalized maximum likelihood type with an appropriately chosen penalty. We argue that second-order efficiency is crucial in semiparametric problems since only the second-order terms in asymptotic expansion for the risk account for the behavior of the ``nonparametric component'' of a semiparametric procedure, and they are not dramatically smaller than the first-order terms.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053605000000895 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Time series prediction via aggregation : an oracle bound including numerical cost

We address the problem of forecasting a time series meeting the Causal Bernoulli Shift model, using a parametric set of predictors. The aggregation technique provides a predictor with well established and quite satisfying theoretical properties expressed by an oracle inequality for the prediction risk. The numerical computation of the aggregated predictor usually relies on a Markov chain Monte Carlo method whose convergence should be evaluated. In particular, it is crucial to bound the number of simulations needed to achieve a numerical precision of the same order as the prediction risk. In this direction we present a fairly general result which can be seen as an oracle inequality including the numerical cost of the predictor computation. The numerical cost appears by letting the oracle inequality depend on the number of simulations required in the Monte Carlo approximation. Some numerical experiments are then carried out to support our findings

Revisiting clustering as matrix factorisation on the Stiefel manifold

International audienceThis paper studies clustering for possibly high dimensional data (e.g. images, time series, gene expression data, and many other settings), and rephrase it as low rank matrix estimation in the PAC-Bayesian framework. Our approach leverages the well known Burer-Monteiro factorisation strategy from large scale optimisation, in the context of low rank estimation. Moreover, our Burer-Monteiro factors are shown to lie on a Stiefel manifold. We propose a new generalized Bayesian estimator for this problem and prove novel prediction bounds for clustering. We also devise a componentwise Langevin sampler on the Stiefel manifold to compute this estimator

Systems of Hess-Appel'rot Type and Zhukovskii Property

We start with a review of a class of systems with invariant relations, so called {\it systems of Hess--Appel'rot type} that generalizes the classical Hess--Appel'rot rigid body case. The systems of Hess-Appel'rot type carry an interesting combination of both integrable and non-integrable properties. Further, following integrable line, we study partial reductions and systems having what we call the {\it Zhukovskii property}: these are Hamiltonian systems with invariant relations, such that partially reduced systems are completely integrable. We prove that the Zhukovskii property is a quite general characteristic of systems of Hess-Appel'rote type. The partial reduction neglects the most interesting and challenging part of the dynamics of the systems of Hess-Appel'rot type - the non-integrable part, some analysis of which may be seen as a reconstruction problem. We show that an integrable system, the magnetic pendulum on the oriented Grassmannian $Gr^+(4,2)$ has natural interpretation within Zhukovskii property and it is equivalent to a partial reduction of certain system of Hess-Appel'rot type. We perform a classical and an algebro-geometric integration of the system, as an example of an isoholomorphic system. The paper presents a lot of examples of systems of Hess-Appel'rot type, giving an additional argument in favor of further study of this class of systems.Comment: 42 page

Noisy Monte Carlo: Convergence of Markov chains with approximate transition kernels

Monte Carlo algorithms often aim to draw from a distribution $\pi$ by simulating a Markov chain with transition kernel $P$ such that $\pi$ is invariant under $P$. However, there are many situations for which it is impractical or impossible to draw from the transition kernel $P$. For instance, this is the case with massive datasets, where is it prohibitively expensive to calculate the likelihood and is also the case for intractable likelihood models arising from, for example, Gibbs random fields, such as those found in spatial statistics and network analysis. A natural approach in these cases is to replace $P$ by an approximation $\hat{P}$. Using theory from the stability of Markov chains we explore a variety of situations where it is possible to quantify how 'close' the chain given by the transition kernel $\hat{P}$ is to the chain given by $P$. We apply these results to several examples from spatial statistics and network analysis.Comment: This version: results extended to non-uniformly ergodic Markov chain

Asymptotic equivalence of discretely observed diffusion processes and their Euler scheme: small variance case

This paper establishes the global asymptotic equivalence, in the sense of the Le Cam $\Delta$-distance, between scalar diffusion models with unknown drift function and small variance on the one side, and nonparametric autoregressive models on the other side. The time horizon $T$ is kept fixed and both the cases of discrete and continuous observation of the path are treated. We allow non constant diffusion coefficient, bounded but possibly tending to zero. The asymptotic equivalences are established by constructing explicit equivalence mappings.Comment: 21 page

Eight papers translated from the Russian

Topics include algebraic geometry, partial differential equations, Fourier analysis, functional analysis, operator theory, differential geometry, and global analysi